Unless Donald Trump decides to communicate with European allies solely in the acerbic language of tariffsnolimit city slots, he will have to address the famous question usually attributed to Henry Kissinger: Who do I call when I want to talk to Europe?
For Mr. Trump, an America First president-elect whose affection for Europe seems to extend only to its golf courses, it’s not easy to answer. There’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary, the most Trumpian character on the continent. Yet the autocratic Mr. Orban is a political pariah, constantly clashing with European Union institutions, and he leads a small country whose economic output is comparable with that of Kansas. Mr. Orban might be an ally. But he can’t do much to enlarge a Trumpist coalition in Europe, let alone shape policy in its image.
For that role, Mr. Trump should look elsewhere: to Giorgia Meloni, Italy’s post-fascist prime minister. According to people close to her, she is already positioning herself to act as a bridge between the incoming Trump administration and Europe’s leaders. After successfully cementing her rule in Italy, where she has balanced her authoritarian instincts with pragmatism, Ms. Meloni is clearly ready for her next task: bringing Trumpism into the heart of Europe.
The stars seem to be aligning in her favor. Ms. Meloni has been running the third-largest economy in the Eurozone for over two years, a remarkably long time by Italy’s standards, and remains reasonably popular. The continent, meanwhile, has been moving swiftly to the right. Far-right parties like the one Ms. Meloni leads are now involved in governments in seven E.U. countries and are on the rise almost everywhere, including in France and Germany.
At the international level, Ms. Meloni has proved herself to be a canny operator. To the surprise of critics, she has forged warm relationships with President Biden and the president of the E.U. Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. She’s at the helm of the European Conservatives and Reformists group — a relatively moderate force in the European Parliament, compared with the populist hard-liners, that includes the U.S. Republican Party in its global network — and has a reputation for skilled diplomacy. The recent appointment of one of her most trusted supporters as an executive vice president of the commission will surely deepen her influence in Brussels.
Ms. Meloni is rising as Europe’s major leaders appear to be falling. President Emmanuel Macron of France was already weakened by summer elections; the collapse last week of a minority government he put together has dealt another major blow to his authority. Things for Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany are, if anything, worse: He is wildly unpopular and, after the fall of his government last month, facing elections his party is almost certain to lose. After Mr. Trump’s recent election, the two leaders urged “the European Union to stand close together and act in a united manner.” But there’s no sign they’ll be able to bring that about.
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